UC San Diego Survey Finds Falling Confidence in 2026 Midterm Vote Counts Across U.S. Political Groups
Confidence in national election administration drops from post-2024 highs
Voter confidence that ballots in the 2026 midterm elections will be counted accurately has declined sharply across Democrats, Republicans and independents, a national survey conducted by UC San Diego’s Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections found.
The survey of 11,406 eligible voters, fielded from Dec. 19, 2025, through Jan. 12, 2026, found 60% of respondents said they were confident votes would be counted accurately nationwide in the 2026 midterms. That represents a 17-point drop from 77% recorded shortly after the 2024 presidential election.
The midterm general election is scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026, with control of Congress and numerous state and local offices at stake.
Declines span parties and independents, with different underlying concerns
The survey found trust fell in parallel across partisan groups: down 17 percentage points among Republicans, 13 points among Democrats and 16 points among independents compared with levels measured after the 2024 contest. A narrower measure reported in related toplines showed independents registering the lowest confidence (57%), compared with 64% among Democrats and 65% among Republicans.
While the direction of change was broadly similar, the issues respondents associated with election integrity differed. Among Republicans, distrust clustered around specific election procedures, including skepticism toward mail ballots (50%) and concern about whether non-citizens would be prevented from voting (51%). Among Democrats and independents, skepticism was more closely tied to political representation and rules-setting, including doubts that congressional districts are drawn in ways that fairly reflect voter preferences (51% of Democrats and 48% of independents, compared with 34% of Republicans).
Immigration enforcement at or near polling places emerges as a key confidence factor
The research also measured expectations about federal immigration enforcement around election sites. Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, 44% of Democrats, 34% of independents and 30% of Republicans said they believed it was likely that Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers would be at voting locations in their area.
Across racial and ethnic groups, respondents more often said the presence of immigration enforcement would reduce rather than increase their confidence that votes would be counted as voters intend. The survey also found sizable shares of some groups reporting concern that showing up to vote could carry personal risk of being questioned by immigration officers despite U.S. citizenship: 31% of Asian American respondents, 31% of Latino respondents, 21% of Black respondents and 8% of white respondents.
Redistricting disputes appear to reinforce legitimacy concerns
When asked about whether recent redistricting efforts amount to attempts to “rig” the 2026 midterms, respondents most often attributed blame to the opposing party. At the same time, nearly one-quarter of members of each party assigned at least some responsibility to their own party’s leaders, suggesting the issue is viewed through both partisan and institutional lenses.
- Survey size: 11,406 eligible voters
- Field dates: Dec. 19, 2025 – Jan. 12, 2026
- National confidence for 2026 midterm vote counting: 60%
- Comparable post-2024 confidence level: 77%
The findings point to a broad erosion in confidence in election administration at the national level, alongside issue-specific doubts that vary by party and demographic group.